Top Economic Events to Watch | August 4 - 8, 2025

Markets don’t sleep—and this week’s calendar is stacked with data that could seriously move the needle. Whether you’re trading FX, crypto, or equities, here are the three macro events you need to have on your radar right now. Each one has the power to shake global markets. Let's break them down.

🏦 1. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision – August 7

🎯 What’s Happening:

The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the benchmark Bank Rate from 4.25% down to 4.00%. This would be its fifth rate cut since August 2024 as the UK grapples with rising unemployment and sticky inflation.

📉 UK inflation sits at 3.6% (June)—still above the 2% target.
🧾 Unemployment rose to 4.7%, its highest since early 2021.
📈 Sterling gained +0.2% against the dollar on Monday (Aug 4), recovering slightly from a 3.8% loss in July.

🌍 Why It Matters:

The BoE’s rate call isn’t just about the UK. It sends signals to the entire global bond market, shapes European risk appetite, and heavily impacts currency flows. Even if the cut is priced in, the forward guidance—what the BoE says about future cuts or balance sheet plans—can spark volatility in GBP pairs, European stocks, and even commodities.

“The BoE is walking a tightrope: inflation remains sticky, but the economy is cooling fast.” – The Guardian

📊 2. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Services) – August 5

🎯 What’s Happening:

The ISM Services PMI is the best early read on the U.S. services economy—which makes up over two-thirds of GDP. July’s print follows a shaky few months:

✅ June PMI: 50.8 (expansion)
❌ May PMI: 49.9 (contraction)
⚠️ Employment index remained in contraction in June, despite service sector growth

🌍 Why It Matters:

The ISM print often front-runs moves in the S&P 500, the USD, and Treasury yields. A strong print could reignite talk of inflation risks and a hawkish Fed. A miss? Traders might start pricing in rate cuts sooner.

Also, this month’s number is even more important because businesses are citing tariff-related uncertainty as a growing concern—especially in hiring.

“Service firms say they’re holding back on expansion due to unclear U.S. trade policy.” – Reuters

3. U.S. Trade Balance – August 5

🎯 What’s Happening:

This figure tracks the difference between U.S. imports and exports. In normal times, it’s a quiet stat. But not this month.

On August 7, the U.S. will activate a new wave of tariffs on dozens of countries, escalating a protectionist trade push that’s already rattled global equities.

July’s trade balance will offer the first hard data on how much U.S. companies were importing ahead of the new tariffs—and whether foreign demand for U.S. goods is holding up.

“These trade numbers could be an early warning sign of global supply chain stress returning.” – AP News

🌍 Why It Matters:

Trade flows influence currency strength (especially the USD), commodity prices, and emerging market risk. A wider deficit could send the dollar lower, while a surprise surplus might offer a short-term USD bounce.

🚀 Final Thoughts for Traders

This is not a week to be flat-footed.

Watch for volatility spikes during BoE announcements and ISM PMI release windows (typically 10:00 AM ET).

Currency traders: Keep a close eye on GBP and USD pairs. The dollar in particular could swing sharply off PMI and trade data.

Equities: Markets are already nervous about tariffs and rates. Data surprises will magnify reactions.

Macro is back in the driver’s seat. Time your entries carefully, hedge smart, and always read the fine print in central bank statements.